Iran has pulled out of planned US talks in Pakistan, and the odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 have dropped ...

Opposition demands Starmer's resignation amid the Mandelson scandal. Starmer out by June 30, 2026 at 36.5% YES.

Iran has tightened its grip on the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation against the US. Trump’s Iranian oil sanction relief by ...

Iran's envoy claims US and Israeli strikes were unsuccessful, asserting national unity. Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 ...

Trump signs order to speed psychedelic drug research. Agreement to Iranian oil sanction relief in April at 36.5% YES.

Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria coalition secured 45% of the vote in Bulgaria’s parliamentary election, putting him in a strong position to form the next government. The market for Radev becoming ...

Iran's strike on Israel by April 30, 2026, is fully priced at 100% YES, indicating complete trader consensus on the ...

US Treasury yields rise amid Strait of Hormuz tensions. Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April drops to 36.5% ...

US-Israeli strikes damaged 20 Iranian aircraft while airport infrastructure remains intact. Israel military action against ...

US seizes an Iranian cargo ship, leading to accusations of piracy. Traffic normalization in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30 ...

Asset managers hold over 1.5 million Bitcoin amid US-Iran tensions. Bitcoin priced between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 15 at ...

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is stalled due to an Iran blockade. Fewer than 10 ships transiting from April 13-19 at 0 ...