Our weekly simulation for U.S. Treasury yields. Read the latest update in the article series, as of April 25, 2025.

A typical example of a random variable is the outcome of a coin toss. Consider a probability distribution in which the outcomes of a random event aren't equally likely to happen. Y could be 0 ...

The cumulative return of value stocks surpassed ... translated to cheap stocks, have a greater probability of yielding higher returns.

the probability distribution of future price outcomes, and a Black Scholes VBA function. A formula for estimating price probabilities is provided in the Appendix, along with a Black Scholes VBA ...

This is a lot of scrambling. Although each individual scramble carries the same individual risk, the cumulative probability adds up over time. Put another way, if I continue at my current rate — 265 ...